Myths, Debunked

Myth — It’ll never happen.

Fact — Change can — and does — happen. The 17th Amendment allowed for the direct election of Senators. The 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote. And recently, the House and Senate passed Electoral Count Act overhaul in response to the January 6 insurrection.

Myth — Large, populous states would determine the outcome of the Presidential election.

Fact — No. The math does not support this. The six most populous states (California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois) collectively represent 41 percent of the U.S. population. Even if the majority of voters in each of these states voted for the same candidate (and they likely would not), they alone would not determine the election’s outcome [1].

Myth — The big cities would determine the outcome of the Presidential election.

Fact — No. As with the example of the most populous states above, the population of the 100 largest cities amounts to just 20% of the total U.S. population. Assuming that these 100 cities all voted for the same candidate, it is mathematically impossible for the election’s outcome to be determined by just these cities [1].

Myth — The smallest states need the “protection” of the Electoral College to ensure their interests are represented.

Fact — Small states do not vote as a bloc. For example, of the 16 smallest states that voted in the 2016 Presidential election, eight voted for Hillary Clinton and eight voted for Donald Trump. Also, the winner-take-all mechanism means that candidates prize the larger electoral “jackpot” states, such as California, Texas, or Florida. The smallest electoral states are routinely ignored. Moreover, previous attempts to reform (or remove) the Electoral College have been thwarted not by small states but by the southern states.

Besides, every state — regardless of population or electoral votes — has equal representation in the Senate.

Myth — The Electoral College protects the rights of the minority from the tyranny of the majority.

Fact — It’s the judicial system — the courts — that protects minority rights, not the Electoral College.

Myth — Only the Democratic Party would benefit from eliminating the Electoral College.

Fact — Although the Republican candidate has won the Electoral College (while losing the popular vote) twice in the past two decades, the Republican Party has come very close to losing the Presidential contest. In 2004, had only 119,000 votes in Ohio gone to John Kerry (D), Ohio would have turned “blue,” giving him 271 electoral votes to George W. Bush’s 266 electoral votes. George W. Bush (R) would have lost the 2004 election, despite having 2.95 million more votes than his opponent [2].

Moreover, California has over 5.3 million registered Republican voters [3] — an amount greater than the individual populations of 28 states! And yet these citizens’ votes are nullified because California’s 55 electoral votes typically end up in the “blue” column. Why should only a portion of a state’s votes count in choosing a President for all the people?

Myth — Without the Electoral College, candidates would likely ignore a lot of states.

Fact — They already do! Thanks to “swing” states, Presidential candidates essentially ignore 70 percent of the U.S. population. Removing the Electoral College creates a level playing field, ensuring that regional issues across the entire United States are heard.

1. Population data is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov/), 2019 estimates. The estimated U.S. population on December 31, 2019, was 329,164,516.

2. Data courtesy of the League of Women Voters, Illinois chapter.

3. Voter registration statistics, California Secretary of State, as of October 19, 2020.